In a new twist on politics, researchers from the University of Michigan have been studying tweeting trends to see if anything can be garnered from the 140 character missives generated by those of a political persuasion. Their results, published on a U of M school site, called "The Party is Over Here: Structure and Content in the 2010 Election" highlights the apparent differences in the ways Democrats versus Republicans use Twitter in an election cycle.
How Republicans Use Twitter
The researchers looked at 460,000 tweets over the three years leading up to the 2010 non-presidential election year, where candidates were up for national election for House, Senate and more locally, gubernatorial office. They found that on the whole, republicans or those they considered conservative, were quite focused, tweeting about topics directly related to the election, such as "spending," "bills," and "budget." They also found that the same conservatives tweeted on average 723 times over the course of the three year period.
How Democrats Use Twitter
Unlike the Republicans, the study team found that Democrats, or those on the liberal side of the political spectrum, used twitter in much more informal ways. Keywords were more likely to be about general topics, such as "jobs," "clean energy" and "reform," and posted far less than Republicans, with an average of just 551 tweets per person over the course of the same three year period.
How Twitter is Impacting Elections
In addition to noting such trends derived from keywords, the research team also found that they could predict election results with an accuracy of nearly 88%, which if it holds up, would make it a far more reliable source than most polls used during the time leading up to an election. They found that looking at nothing more than keyword trends and the number of tweets coming from different parties, and what those tweets are about are a good indicator of who is most likely to get elected.
And finally, the team found some correlation between the positions a candidate held and his or her chances of being reelected and the number of tweets about them and their positions. Those with the most tweets, tended to also get the most votes.
How Social Media Might Impact Future Elections
Based on the results of this research, and other projects going on around the country, it seems pretty clear that future candidates and their teams of researchers will use similar techniques to not just gauge their own candid candidate's chances, but to make changes in the way that campaigns are run.
Sources
- "The Party is Over Here: Structure and Content in the 2010 Election" University of Michigan Computer Science and Engineering Department, viewed July 25, 2011
Bob Yirka - Bob Yirka has written thousands of online articles and backs them up with a BS in Computer Science/MS in Information Systems Management.
